Izitayela zakamuva namathemba emakethe kakotini yomhlaba wonke

Ngokombono wesidingo, umbiko wokuthengiswa kukakotini wase-US okhishwe ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule ubonise ukuthi kusukela ngesonto likaMeyi 16, ukuthengiswa kukakotini wase-US kukhuphuke ngamabhala angu-203,000, okuwukunyuka kwama-30% kusukela ngesonto eledlule kanye no-19% kusukela esilinganisweni amasonto amane adlule. Ukuthengwa kwe-China kubalele ingxenye ephezulu, futhi isidingo esikhulu sisekela inani likakotini lase-US.
NgoMeyi 30, eNgqungqutheleni Yokuthuthukiswa Kwemboni YaseChina yangowezi-2024 eyayisingethwe yiChina Cotton Association, uMichael Edwards, usihlalo kanye nomhleli oyinhloko weBritish Courtluke Co., Ltd., wethula inkulumo enesihloko esithi “Amathrendi Akamuva Namathemba I-Global Cotton Market".
UMichael wabonisa ukuthi iphethini yomhlaba kakotini yesikhathi esizayo ingase ibe nezinguquko zesakhiwo, ikakhulukazi mayelana nokukhiqiza, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa. Mayelana nokukhiqizwa, isimo sezulu saseTexas, e-United States, sasingesihle ngo-2023, esinqamule cishe ingxenye yomkhiqizo. I-China yathenga cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu kakotini e-United States ngo-23/24, okwenza ukotini wase-US esimweni esiqinile, esasihlukile esimweni esixekethile kwezinye izimakethe zokuphakela ukotini. I-Australia ibe nenala yemvula muva nje, futhi umkhiqizo uthambekele ekukhuleni. Ukukhiqizwa kukakotini eBrazil kulindeleke ukuthi kuqophe umlando ngonyaka ozayo. Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, umnikelo wezwe eliseningizimu emakethe yokuthekelisa ukotini ukhule kakhulu, futhi iBrazil isisondele kungxenye ye-United States emakethe yokuthekelisa ukotini yomhlaba wonke. Lokhu kulungiswa kwesakhiwo kuzoba nomthelela emakethe. Mayelana nokuthunyelwa, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kakotini wesizini ushintshile. Esikhathini esidlule, kwakuvame ukushoda kwempahla engxenyeni yesithathu, futhi kwakudingeka ukulinda ukotini ovela enyakatho nenkabazwe ukuze kufakwe ohlwini. Lokhu akusenjalo.
Esinye sezici zokuguquguquka kwezimakethe kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka kuze kube manje ukuguquguquka kwesisekelo. Ukutholakala okuqinile kukakotini wase-US kanye nokutholakala okwanele kwamanye amazwe akhiqiza ukotini kubangele ukushintshashintsha okukhulu esisekelweni sikakotini okungewona owase-US. Ikusasa elihlanekezelwe nezintengo ezikhona emakethe yokuphakela yase-US kwenze kwaba nzima ngabahwebi bamazwe ngamazwe ukuthi babambe izikhundla zikakotini wase-US isikhathi eside, okungesinye sezizathu zokwehla kwamanani esikhathi esizayo. Izinguquko zamanje zesakhiwo emakethe ngesikhathi nasendaweni zingase ziqhubeke, futhi imakethe yeqhwa ngeke ivumele abahwebi bakakotini ukuthi baqedele uthango ngokusebenzisa izikhundla zesikhathi eside esikhathini esizayo.
Ngokombono wesidingo se-China sokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nobudlelwano bayo nemakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, ukuhlobana phakathi kwamanani kakotini waseShayina nezintengo zikakotini zamazwe ngamazwe kuphezulu kakhulu. Kulo nyaka, i-China isemjikelezweni wokugcwalisa. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, ukuthengwa kukakotini eChina sekufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6, kanti lesi sibalo singase sikhuphukele kumathani ayizigidi ezintathu phakathi nonyaka. Ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo eqinile yaseShayina, kuyangabazeka ukuthi amanani kakotini wamazwe ngamazwe angakwazi yini ukuzinza.
Ngo-2024/25, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kukakotini e-United States kwande kakhulu, futhi akukaqinisekwa ukuthi amandla okukhiqiza ukotini eBrazil angafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezi-3.6. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinhlekelele zesimo sezulu njengezikhukhula namazinga okushisa aphezulu nazo zizoba nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizweni kwamazwe akhiqiza ukotini njengePakistan, India, neGreece, futhi ukukhiqizwa kukakotini emhlabeni kungase kuthinteke kakhulu.
Izinyathelo zomhlaba ezithathwayo ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu zizophinde zibe nomthelela ekusetshenzisweni kukakotini esikhathini esizayo. Amasu okunciphisa imfucuza, ukuthuthukisa ukuqina, nokukhuthaza umnotho oyindilinga, kanye nokwanda kwesidingo sezinto ezisimeme nezibolayo, kuzofaka ingcindezi ekusetshenzisweni kukakotini esikhathini esizayo.
Sekukonke, intengo kakotini iye yaguquguquka ngezinga elithile eminyakeni embalwa edlule ngemva kokuphela kwalolu bhubhane, futhi imakethe ayizange ibe nenzuzo. Ukushintsha okuqhubekayo kokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke kusuka enyakatho nenkabazwe kuya engxenyeni eseningizimu yezwe kulethe izinselele ekulawuleni ubungozi. Izinga lokungeniswa kweChina kwamanye amazwe lizosiza ukuzinzisa intengo kakotini emhlabeni wonke kulo nyaka, kodwa ukungaqiniseki kwemakethe yesikhathi esizayo kunamandla.
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-General Administration of Customs, izwe lami langenisa amathani angu-340,000 kakotini ngo-Ephreli, ligcina izinga eliphezulu, ukukhuphuka kwama-325% ngesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, i-inventory yezentengiselwano yehle ngamathani angu-520,000, futhi i-inventory yezimboni yanda ngo. amathani ayi-6,600, okubonisa ukuthi imizamo yasekhaya yokususa ukotini mikhulu, kodwa i-inventory yezinkampani isezingeni eliphezulu. Uma isidingo setheminali singesihle, ikhono lenkampani lokugaya izinto lizoncipha kancane kancane. Ngo-Ephreli, ukuthunyelwa kwezwe lami kwezimpahla zokugqoka nezesekeli kwehle ngo-9.08% unyaka nonyaka, ukuthengiswa kwezimpahla zokugqoka kwehle kancane inyanga nenyanga, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwetheminali bekukubi.

Ngokwempendulo evela kwabanye abalimi bakakotini, amabhizinisi okucubungula kanye neminyango yezolimo yezifunda, amadolobha kanye nezifunda eningizimu yeXinjiang, kusukela ngoMeyi 18, ezinye izindawo zikakotini ezindaweni ezintathu ezinkulu zikakotini eningizimu yeXinjiang, okuhlanganisa iKashgar, Korla kanye ne-Aksu (Aral, Kuche). , Wensu, Awati, njll.), baye babhekana nesimo sezulu esinamandla ngokulandelana, futhi umoya onamandla, izimvula ezinamandla nesichotho kubangele umonakalo kwezinye izinkambu zikakotini. Abalimi bakakotini bathathe izinyathelo ezihlukahlukene zokulungisa lesi simo ngenkuthalo, njengokugcwalisa amanzi ngesikhathi, ukufafaza umanyolo we-foliar, ukutshala kabusha nokutshala kabusha.
Ngenxa yomthelela olinganiselwe walesi simo sezulu esibi, abalimi batshale kabusha ngesikhathi esifanele futhi batshala kabusha izinhlobo ezisheshe zivuthwe (isikhathi sokukhula esiyizinsuku eziyi-110-125, isikhathi esanele sokukhula ngaphambi kwenkathi yesithwathwa ngasekupheleni kuka-Okthoba), futhi kwaqiniswa ukuphathwa kwensimu kanye namanzi nomanyolo kulandela- kusukela ngoJuni-Agasti. Umthelela wenhlekelele unganxeshezelwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isimo sezulu ezindaweni ezinkulu zikakotini enyakatho yeXinjiang sihle futhi izinga lokushisa eliqoqiwe liphezulu, futhi ukukhula kwezithombo zikakotini kungcono kunaseminyakeni emibili edlule. Ngakho-ke, iningi lemboni ligcina isahlulelo sokuthi "indawo yokutshala izoncishiswa kancane futhi umphumela uzokwanda kancane" e-Xinjiang ngo-2024/25.
Njengamanje, amabhizinisi endwangu asesimweni sokulahlekelwa, amabhizinisi endwangu anesidingo esibuthakathaka, futhi ukuthengiswa kukakotini kunzima ukukhuphuka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukungeniswa kwasekhaya kwenani elikhulu likakotini waseMelika nakho kuye kwafaka ingcindezi ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya. Nakuba isimo semakethe sesithuthukile, iphethini yamanje yokuphakela nesidingo isengakwazi ukusekela ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zikakotini. Kuyatuswa ukugcina isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona okwamanje.
Ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo semakethe kakotini kuxega, futhi ukwehla kwezintengo zezintambo kunempendulo engemihle ekhuphukayo, futhi kunesidingo sokulungisa amanani kakotini. Indawo yokutshala nesimo sezulu yikona okuyikona okulindelwe kakhulu emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe. Njengamanje, isimo sezulu emazweni akhiqizayo amakhulu okuthengiswa kwemakethe sijwayelekile, futhi ukulindela isivuno esikhulu kuyaqhubeka. Umbiko wendawo wase-United States ungase unyuke ekupheleni kukaJuni. Ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya kuwukuchezuka okuyinhloko okulindelekile. Njengamanje, ukwehla kwesizini yokuthengiswa kwemakethe kuyaqiniswa, kodwa ukukhuthaza umnotho omkhulu kungase kukhuphule ukusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esizayo. Kulindeleke ukuthi amanani kakotini aguquguquke esikhathini esifushane. Isimo esiqondile sidinga ukunqunywa ngokuya ngesimo esizayo sokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, futhi izinguquko zokuhlinzeka nezidingo kufanele kugxilwe kuzo.