Iindlela zamva nje kunye nethemba lemarike yomqhaphu yehlabathi

Ngokombono wemfuno, ingxelo yokuthengiswa kwekotoni yase-US ekhutshwe ngoLwesihlanu odlulileyo ibonise ukuba ngeveki ye-16 kaMeyi, ukuthengiswa kwekotoni yase-US kwanda ngamabhali angama-203,000, ukwanda kwe-30% kwiveki edlulileyo kunye ne-19% ukusuka kumyinge we kwiiveki ezine ezidlulileyo. Izinto ezithengiweyo zaseTshayina zibalelwe kumlinganiselo ophezulu, kwaye imfuno ephezulu ixhase ixabiso lomqhaphu lase-US.
Nge-30 kaMeyi, kwiNgqungquthela yoPhuhliso loShishino lwaseTshayina yowama-2024 eyayibanjwe nguMbutho waseChina, uMichael Edwards, usihlalo kunye nomhleli oyintloko weBritish Courtluke Co., Ltd., uye wanikela intetho enomxholo othi, kwiMarike yoMqhaphu yeHlabathi”.
UMichael wabonisa ukuba ikamva lomqhaphu lepatheni yehlabathi linokuthi lenze utshintsho kulwakhiwo, ikakhulu ngokwemveliso, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kunye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla. Ngokubhekiselele kwimveliso, imozulu yaseTexas, eUnited States, yayingekho kakuhle ngo-2023, eyanqumla phantse isiqingatha semveliso. I-China yathenga malunga nesithathu kwikotoni e-United States kwi-23/24, eyenza i-cotton yase-US ibe kwimeko eqinile, eyahluke kwimeko ekhululekile kwezinye iimarike zokubonelela ngekotoni. IOstreliya inemvula eninzi kutshanje, yaye imveliso ithande ukwanda. Imveliso yomqhaphu yaseBrazil kulindeleke ukuba ibeke irekhodi elitsha kunyaka ozayo. Ngokuphathelele ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, igalelo le-hemisphere esemazantsi kwimarike yokuthumela ngaphandle komqhaphu liye landa kakhulu, kwaye iBrazil iye yasondela kwi-United States kwimarike yokuthumela ngaphandle kwekotoni yehlabathi. Olu hlengahlengiso lwezakhiwo luya kuba nefuthe kwimarike. Ngokumalunga nokuthunyelwa, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwexesha lonyaka wekotoni utshintshile. Ngaphambili, kwakukho ukunqongophala kokubonelela kwikota yesithathu, kwaye kwakuyimfuneko ukulinda umqhaphu ovela kumntla welizwe ukuba udweliswe. Oku akusenjalo.
Olunye lweempawu zokuguquguquka kweemarike ukusuka ekuqaleni konyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kukuguquguquka kwesiseko. Ukubonelelwa ngokungqongqo komqhaphu wase-US kunye nokubonelela okwaneleyo kwamanye amazwe avelisa umqhaphu kubangele ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwisiseko somqhaphu ongengowase-US. Ikamva eligqwethiweyo kunye namaxabiso amabala kwimarike yobonelelo lwase-US yenze ukuba kungenzeki ukuba abarhwebi bamazwe ngamazwe womqhaphu babambe izikhundla ze-cotton zase-US ixesha elide, esinye sezizathu zokuhla kwamaxabiso exesha elizayo. Utshintsho lwezakhiwo lwangoku kwiimarike ngexesha kunye nendawo zingaqhubeka, kwaye i-market market ayiyi kuvumela abahwebi bekotoni ukuba bagqibezele i-hedging ngokusebenzisa izikhundla zexesha elide kwixesha elizayo.
Ngokwembono yemfuno yaseTshayina yokungenisa elizweni kunye nobudlelwane bayo nemarike yamazwe ngamazwe, unxulumano phakathi kwamaxabiso womqhaphu waseTshayina kunye namaxabiso womqhaphu wamazwe ngamazwe luphezulu kakhulu. Kulo nyaka, i-China ikumjikelo wokuzalisa kwakhona. Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuEpreli, umqhaphu othengiweyo waseTshayina ufikelele kwi-2.6 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye eli nani lisenokunyuka liye malunga ne-3 yezigidi zeetoni kulo nyaka. Ngaphandle kokungeniswa kwe-China okunamandla, kuyathandabuzeka ukuba amaxabiso womqhaphu wamazwe ngamazwe angazinziswa.
Ngo-2024/25, kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yomqhaphu e-United States inganyuka kakhulu, kwaye akuqinisekanga ukuba amandla okuvelisa umqhaphu waseBrazil angafikelela kwi-3.6 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukongeza, iintlekele zemozulu ezifana nezikhukula kunye namaqondo obushushu aphezulu ziya kuba nefuthe elikhulu ekuvelisweni kwamazwe avelisa umqhaphu anjengePakistan, iIndiya, neGrisi, kwaye imveliso yomqhaphu yehlabathi inokuchaphazeleka kakhulu.
Amanyathelo ehlabathi athathiweyo ukusabela kutshintsho lwemozulu nawo aya kuba nefuthe ekusetyenzisweni komqhaphu kwixesha elizayo. Amaqhinga okunciphisa inkunkuma, ukuphucula ukuqina, nokukhuthaza uqoqosho lwesetyhula, kunye nokunyuka kweemfuno zezinto ezizinzileyo kunye ne-biodegradable, kuya kubeka uxinzelelo kwixesha elizayo lokusetyenziswa kwekotoni.
Ngokubanzi, ixabiso lekotoni liye laguquguquka kwinqanaba elithile kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo emva kokuphela kobhubhane, kwaye imarike ayizange ibe nenzuzo. Ukutshintshwa okuqhubekayo kokunikezelwa kwehlabathi jikelele ukusuka kumntla welizwe ukuya kwi-hemisphere esezantsi kuye kwazisa imingeni kulawulo lomngcipheko. Ubungakanani bokungeniswa ngaphandle kweTshayina kuya kunceda ukuzinzisa ixabiso lomqhaphu kwihlabathi kulo nyaka, kodwa ukungaqiniseki kwemarike yexesha elizayo kunamandla.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-General Administration of Customs, ilizwe lam lingenisa iitoni ezingama-340,000 zekotoni ngo-Ephreli, ligcina izinga eliphezulu, ukunyuka kwe-325% ngexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo, uluhlu lwezorhwebo lwehla ngeetoni ezingama-520,000, kunye noluhlu lwemizi-mveliso lwanda ngo I-6,600 yeetoni, ebonisa ukuba iinzame zokutshatyalaliswa komqhaphu zasekhaya zinkulu, kodwa uluhlu lwe-corporate lukwizinga eliphezulu. Ukuba imfuno ye-terminal ayilungile, ukukwazi kwenkampani ukwetyisa uluhlu kuya kuba buthathaka ngokuthe ngcembe. Ngo-Epreli, ukuthengiswa kwelizwe lam kwempahla kunye nempahla yempahla yehle nge-9.08% unyaka nonyaka, ukuthengiswa kwempahla yempahla yehla kancinci ngenyanga, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwe-terminal kwakungalunganga.

Ngokwengxelo evela kwamanye amafama womqhaphu, amashishini alungisayo kunye namasebe ezolimo eengingqi, izixeko kunye nemimandla esemazantsi eXinjiang, ukusukela nge-18 kaMeyi, ezinye iindawo zomqhaphu kwiindawo ezintathu eziphambili zomqhaphu kumazantsi eXinjiang, kubandakanya iKashgar, Korla kunye neAksu (Aral, Kuche). , Wensu, Awati, njl.njl.), baye badibana ngokulandelelana kwemozulu enamandla, kunye nemimoya enamandla, iimvula ezinkulu kunye nesichotho zibangele umonakalo kwamanye amasimi ekotoni. Abalimi bomqhaphu bathathe amanyathelo awohlukeneyo ukulungisa le meko, njengokuzaliswa kwamanzi kwangexesha, ukutshiza izichumiso zamagqabi, ukutyalwa ngokutsha kunye nokuphinda kuhlawulwe.
Ngenxa yempembelelo encinci yale mozulu imbi, amafama aphinda atyalwe kwangethuba kwaye aphinda atyala iintlobo ezikhula kwangoko (ixesha lokukhula leentsuku ezingama-110-125, ixesha elaneleyo lokukhula ngaphambi kwexesha leqabaka ngasekupheleni kukaOktobha), kwaye okomeleza ulawulo lwentsimi kunye namanzi kunye nesichumiso silandela- ukuya ngoJuni-Agasti. Impembelelo yentlekele inokubuyiselwa. Ukongeza, imozulu kwiindawo ezinkulu zomqhaphu kumantla eXinjiang ilungile kwaye ubushushu obuqokelelweyo buphezulu, kwaye ukukhula kwezithole zomqhaphu kungcono kunakwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Ke ngoko, uninzi lweshishini ligcina isigwebo sokuba "indawo yokutyala iya kuncitshiswa kancinci kwaye imveliso iya kunyuka kancinci" eXinjiang ngo-2024/25.
Okwangoku, amashishini amalaphu akwimeko eyenza ilahleko, amashishini amalaphu anemfuno ebuthathaka, kwaye intengiso yomqhaphu kunzima ukunyuka. Kwangaxeshanye, ukungeniswa kweli lizwe komyinge omkhulu womqhaphu waseMelika nako kubeke uxinzelelo kwicala lonikezelo lwasekhaya. Nangona uvakalelo lwemarike luye lwaphucuka, unikezelo lwangoku kunye nepateni yemfuno ayinakukwazi ukuxhasa ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso ekotoni. Kuyacetyiswa ukuba kugcinwe isimo sengqondo sokulinda-nokubona okwangoku.
Ubonelelo kunye nemfuno yemarike yekotoni ikhululekile, kwaye ukuhla kwamaxabiso eentambo kunempendulo engalunganga phezulu, kwaye kukho imfuneko yohlengahlengiso kumaxabiso ekotoni. Indawo yokutyala kunye nemozulu zezona zinxaxhi zilindelekileyo kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe. Okwangoku, imozulu kumazwe aphambili avelisa iintengiso zentengiso iqhelekile, kwaye ukulindela isivuno esikhulu siyaqhubeka. Ingxelo yendawo yase-United States inokunyuka ekupheleni kukaJuni. Ukusetyenziswa ekhaya yeyona nto iphambili yokutenxa. Okwangoku, ixesha elisezantsi lokuthengisana lentengiso liqinisiwe, kodwa i-macroeconomic stimulus inokunyusa ukusetyenziswa kwexesha elizayo. Kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso ekotoni atshintshe kwixesha elifutshane. Imeko ethile kufuneka imiselwe ngokwemeko yobonelelo kunye nemfuno yexesha elizayo, kwaye unikezelo kunye notshintsho lwemfuno kufuneka lugxininiswe.