Zvichangoburwa maitiro uye tarisiro yemusika wepasi rose wedonje

Kubva pakuda kwemaonero, mushumo wekutengesa donje weUS wakabudiswa neChishanu chapfuura wakaratidza kuti kubva svondo raMay 16, kutengeswa kwedonje kuUS kwakawedzera nemabhero zviuru mazana maviri nemazana matatu, kuwedzera kwe30% kubva svondo rapfuura uye 19% kubva paavhareji. mavhiki mana apfuura. Kutenga kweChina kwakakonzera chikamu chepamusoro, uye kudiwa kukuru kwakatsigira mutengo wedonje weUS.
Musi wa30 Chivabvu, pa2024 China Cotton Industry Development Summit Forum yakatambirwa neChina Cotton Association, Michael Edwards, sachigaro uye mupepeti-mukuru weBritish Courtluke Co., Ltd., akapa hurukuro ine musoro unoti "Recent Trends and Prospects of iyo Global Cotton Market".
Michael akataura kuti ramangwana renyika donje patani inogona kuchinja magadzirirwo, kunyanya maererano nekugadzirwa, kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kutumira. Panyaya yekugadzirwa, mamiriro ekunze muTexas, United States, akanga asina kunaka muna 2023, iyo yakacheka inenge hafu yekugadzirwa. China yakatenga chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chedonje muUnited States muna 23/24, izvo zvakaita kuti donje reUS rive mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma, izvo zvakanga zvakasiyana nemamiriro ezvinhu akasununguka mune mamwe misika yekotoni. Australia yakanaya mvura zhinji nguva pfupi yadarika, uye kugadzirwa kwacho kuri kuwedzera. Kurimwa kwedonje kuBrazil kuri kutarisirwawo kuita nhoroondo itsva gore rinouya. Panyaya yekutengeswa kunze kwenyika, mupiro weSouthern Hemisphere kumusika wekotoni kunze kwenyika wakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye Brazil yaswedera kune chikamu cheUnited States mumusika wepasi rose wekotoni. Izvi zvigadziriso zvekugadzirisa zvichava nemigumisiro pamusika. Panyaya yekutumira, mwaka wekutengesa huwandu hwekotoni hwachinja. Munguva yakapfuura, kwaiwanzove nekushayikwa kwekugovera muchikamu chechitatu, uye zvaive zvakafanira kumirira kotoni kubva kuchamhembe kwehemisphere kuti inyore. Izvi hazvisisiri izvo.
Humwe hunhu hwekuchinja kwemusika kubva pakutanga kwegore kusvika ikozvino kushanduka kwehwaro. Kuwanda kwedonje reUS uye kuwaniswa kwedonje rakakwana kune dzimwe nyika dzinogadzira donje zvakakonzera kuchinja kukuru pahwaro hwedonje risiri rekuUS. Ramangwana rakapidiguka uye mitengo yenzvimbo mumusika wekutengesa weUS zvaita kuti zvitadze kuti vatengesi vedonje vepasi rese vabate zvinzvimbo zvedonje reUS kwenguva yakareba, chinova chimwe chezvikonzero zvekudzikira kwemitengo yeramangwana. Ikozvino kuchinja kwemaitiro mumusika munguva uye nzvimbo inogona kuenderera mberi, uye misika yechando haizobvumiri vatengesi vekotoni kuti vapedze hedging kuburikidza nekugara kwenguva refu mune ramangwana.
Kubva pamaonero ezvinodiwa neChina kunze kwenyika uye hukama hwayo nemusika wepasi rose, kuwirirana pakati pemitengo yedonje yekuChina nemitengo yedonje yepasi rose yakakwirira zvikuru. Gore rino, China iri muchikamu chekugadzirisa. Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Kubvumbi, donje rakatengwa neChina kunze kwenyika rasvika matani 2,6 miriyoni, uye huwandu uhu hunogona kukwira kusvika pamatani 3 miriyoni mukati megore. Pasina kutengwa neChina kwakasimba, hazvina mubvunzo kuti mitengo yedonje yepasi rose inogona kudzikamiswa.
Muna 2024/25, zvinotarisirwa kuti kugadzirwa kwedonje kuUnited States kunogona kuwedzera zvakanyanya, uye hazvisati zvanyatsozivikanwa kuti kugadzirwa kwedonje kweBrazil kunogona kusvika matani 3.6 miriyoni. Pamusoro pezvo, njodzi dzemamiriro ekunze dzakaita semafashamu uye tembiricha yakanyanya zvichakanganisawo kugadzirwa kwenyika dzinorimwa donje dzakaita sePakistan, India, neGreece, uye kurimwa kwedonje pasi rose kunogona kukanganiswa zvikuru.
Matanho epasi rose anotorwa kugadzirisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze achavewo nechanza pakudyiwa kwedonje mune remangwana. Matanho ekudzikisa marara, kuvandudza kusimba, uye kusimudzira hupfumi hwakatenderedza, pamwe nekuwedzera kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvinogara uye biodegradable zvinhu, zvinoisa kudzvanywa pakushandiswa kwedonje mune ramangwana.
Pakazara, mutengo wekotoni wakachinja kune imwe nhanho mumakore mashoma apfuura mushure mekupera kwedenda, uye musika hauna kuita purofiti. Kuenderera mberi kwekuchinja kwekupa kwepasirese kubva kuNorthern Hemisphere kuenda kuSouthern Hemisphere kwakaunza matambudziko ekutarisira njodzi. Huyero hwezvinotengwa neChina kunze kwenyika huchabatsira kudzikamisa mutengo wedonje wepasi rose gore rino, asi kusagadzikana kwemusika weramangwana kwakasimba.
Zvinoenderana nedata reGeneral Administration of Customs, nyika yangu yakaunza 340,000 matani edonje muna Kubvumbi, ichichengetedza yakakwira, kuwedzera kwe325% panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura, kushambadzira kwekutengesa kwakadzikira ne520,000 matani, uye maindasitiri ekugadzira akawedzera. 6,600 matani, zvichiratidza kuti kuedza kwedonje kwepamba kwakakura, asi uwandu hwemakambani huri padanho repamusoro. Kana iyo yekupedzisira inoda isina kunaka, kugona kwekambani kugaya hesitori kunopera zvishoma nezvishoma. MunaEpril, nyika yangu inotengeswa kunze kwezvipfeko uye zvipfeko zvembatya zvakadonha ne9.08% gore-negore, kutengeswa kwezvipfeko kwakadonha zvishoma-nemwedzi, uye kushandiswa kwekupedzisira kwaive kwakashata.

Zvinoenderana nemhinduro kubva kune vamwe varimi vedonje, mabhizinesi ekugadzira uye madhipatimendi ekurima ematunhu, maguta nematunhu ari kumaodzanyemba Xinjiang, kubva Chivabvu 18, dzimwe nzvimbo dzedonje munzvimbo nhatu huru dzedonje kumaodzanyemba Xinjiang, kusanganisira Kashgar, Korla neAksu (Aral, Kuche). , Wensu, Awati, nezvimwewo), vakasangana nemamiriro ekunze akasimba, uye mhepo ine simba, mvura zhinji nechimvuramabwe zvakakonzera kukanganisa kune mamwe minda yedonje. Varimi vedonje vatora matanho akasiyana ekugadzirisa zvinhu zvine hungwaru, zvakaita sekuzadza mvura nenguva, kumwaya fetereza yefoliar, kudyara patsva nekudyara patsva.
Nekuda kwekukanganisa kushoma kwemamiriro ekunze aya, varimi vakadyara panguva yakakodzera uye vakadyarazve mhando dzekutanga-kukura (nguva yekukura kwemazuva 110-125, nguva yekukura yakakwana nguva yechando isati yasvika mukupera kwaGumiguru), uye kusimbaradza kwekutonga kwemunda uye mvura nefetereza zvinotevera. munaJune-August. Kukanganisa kwenjodzi kunogona kubhadharwa. Pamusoro pezvo, mamiriro ekunze munzvimbo huru dzedonje kuchamhembe kweXinjiang akanaka uye tembiricha yakaunganidzwa yakakwira, uye kukura kwembesa dzedonje kuri nani pane makore maviri apfuura. Naizvozvo, mazhinji eindasitiri anochengetedza mutongo wekuti "nzvimbo yekudyara ichaderedzwa zvishoma uye zvinobuda zvichawedzera zvishoma" muXinjiang muna 2024/25.
Parizvino, mabhizinesi emachira ari mukurasikirwa, mabhizinesi emachira ane kusimba kushoma, uye kutengesa kwekotoni kwakaoma kuwedzera. Panguva imwecheteyo, kutengeswa kwedonje mudzimba kwehuwandu hukuru hwedonje rekuAmerica kwaisawo kudzvanywa kudivi rekupa mudzimba. Kunyangwe manzwiro emusika avandudzwa, iyo iripo uye yekuda maitiro haigone kutsigira kuenderera mberi kwemitengo yekotoni. Zvinokurudzirwa kuchengetedza kumirira-uye-kuona maitiro kwenguva.
Kupa uye kudiwa kwemusika wekotoni kwakasununguka, uye kuderera kwemitengo yeshinda kune mhinduro yakaipa kumusoro, uye pane chido chekugadzirisa mumitengo yekotoni. Kudyara nzvimbo uye mamiriro ekunze ndizvo zvinonyanya kutarisira kutsauka pamusika wepasirese. Parizvino, mamiriro ekunze munyika huru dzinogadzira zvekutengeserana kwemusika zvakajairika, uye tarisiro yezvibereko zvakakwirira inoenderera mberi. Chirevo chenharaunda cheUnited States chinogona kuwedzera pakupera kwaJune. Kushandiswa kwemumba ndiyo inonyanya kutarisira kutsauka. Parizvino, kudzika kwemwaka wekutengesa kwemusika kunosimbiswa, asi macroeconomic kukurudzira kunogona kuwedzera kushandiswa kwemangwana. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mitengo yedonje ichachinja munguva pfupi. Mamiriro chaiwo anofanirwa kutariswa zvichienderana neremangwana rekupa uye kudiwa mamiriro, uye kupa uye kudiwa shanduko dzinofanirwa kutariswa.